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Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 26th 2016, 11:46 PM

I thought she had a 100 percent chance of winning- given how many people I know who were like "of course I didn't vote for Trump" or "of course Hillary"- I thought it was obvious who would win- especially as Trump seemed to have received a lot of bad publicity.

The polls were strongly in her favor- I think most showed a consistent and considerable lead in the popular vote over Trump. While she did have a slight advantage in the popular vote, she still managed to lose. But why? I think a lot of people were surprised.

Also, many websites that I looked at showed that only a few "unlikely" possible outcomes , out of thousands of possible outcomes, would make Trump the winner. It all made it look like Trump had no chance.

Personally I think she lost because she has always seemed to have a bad reputation- for reasons that may or may not be justified. I know way back before this election started (like 2014 and before) - whenever I would ask people about Hillary, they would say things like "I hope she doesn't make it this time" or "I want a female president- but dont want it to be THAT woman" , etc. Whatever the reason- her first impression on people, before even going into this race-was negative. There was a belief that she was corrupt. A lot of people don't necessarily look up all details to form an unbiased opinion and so many people probably voted based on these impressions--which were made worse due to the FBI investigation. While people have tried to paint Trump in a bad light- I feel that his initial impression on people was positive. He was a celebrity-like figure before this election and people did not seem to have a bad impression of him until he ran for office-so that gave him an advantage.
   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 01:39 AM

She did win the popular vote. Trump only won because of electoral, few actually voted for the guy.

So, the polls were basically correct - only the electoral vote wasn't taken into account.

It's Trump by the way the states were outlined, rather than by the voter.

Trump himself has stated that the electoral as it is right now is really outdated. This election served as the finest example of that.
   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 02:41 AM

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Originally Posted by Equality_Believer View Post
She did win the popular vote. Trump only won because of electoral, few actually voted for the guy.

So, the polls were basically correct - only the electoral vote wasn't taken into account.

It's Trump by the way the states were outlined, rather than by the voter.

Trump himself has stated that the electoral as it is right now is really outdated. This election served as the finest example of that.
Still it was a lot closer than polls showed.
   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 02:47 AM

It's always closer than the polls show, but it is important to remember that Trump did not win the vote of the people. So, if it was who voted - majority of people did vote against Trump, most were right in that most obviously wouldn't vote for Trump (since most didn't). It was how the electoral is structured that got him into office. It's how people can say we didn't wake up and automatically became a different America, since we didn't. It's different, but it was more or less a lot like Brexit in terms of voting.
   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 03:01 AM

People in rural America are mad about the economy since we've moved away from an agricultural industry and to technological one, but schools have not kept up with that, leaving them behind economically, and they blame the president because are uneducated in how government works and that the executive branch holds little power and impact in their personal lives. However, they voted Republican/"the business man" thinking that it'll improve jobs. That, and a lot more people were holding racist, sexist, homophobic, and transphobic beliefs and kept it quiet until they got to the polls. (regardless of somebody's reasons for voting for Trump, they accepted a platform rooted in hatred, and therefore have accepted it as part of life and something that they are okay with). Last, the media also did a really crappy job in polling.

Well, those are my opinions anyway.


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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 04:17 AM

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People in rural America are mad about the economy since we've moved away from an agricultural industry and to technological one, but schools have not kept up with that, leaving them behind economically, and they blame the president because are uneducated in how government works and that the executive branch holds little power and impact in their personal lives. However, they voted Republican/"the business man" thinking that it'll improve jobs. That, and a lot more people were holding racist, sexist, homophobic, and transphobic beliefs and kept it quiet until they got to the polls. (regardless of somebody's reasons for voting for Trump, they accepted a platform rooted in hatred, and therefore have accepted it as part of life and something that they are okay with). Last, the media also did a really crappy job in polling.

Well, those are my opinions anyway.

I agree quite a bit with this. I don't think I have anything else to add.


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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 09:47 AM

The polls and predictions I watched on election night... suggested that the electoral college was taken into account. It is in theory possible to win as little as 20% of the popular vote, and win the general election. That would be a 30% margin of error (50% minus 20%) when basing predictions off on the popular vote... which would be unacceptable. So polls and predictions are generally based off the electoral college system.

I don't have an easy answer for why she lost despite all the evidence to the contrary. People are saying:
- the polls were rigged (not illegal, actually)
- the polls didn't sample the correct populations
- low voter turnout in some states which Trump won

.


"I don't care about politics"
Then politics doesn't care about you either. Truth. You've got to make your voice heard, if you want to be listened to. But that's too logical for some people, so let me go a step further. Not making your voice heard, leaves other people free to hijack it by speaking on your behalf, even if they don't actually give a shit about you. That's politics. So, make your voice heard. That's not a quote from anywhere. That's just me.


   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 04:46 PM

First off, trump didn't win because white people are racist. Very few people are actually racist in comparison to how many people think there are. Trump won because of many different reasons.
Reason 1: People saw trump as the anti social justice warrior and it appealed to them.
2: Many blue collar people didn't appreciate being left behind for the millenials and felt betrayed by the Democratic Party.
3: Obamacare was a decent idea with poor execution, and while some aspects of it have been beneficial, the price for many families has sky-rocketed. Trump promised to replace it and a lot of people affected by the prices going up liked that.
4: Hillary was not a candidate people really liked at all, likability does matter even if the candidate doesent have experience. Obama was a community organizer, then a senator for a short time in which time he never actually voted for any bill. However, he was and still is really likesble. Hence why he won.
5. Groups such as black lives matter pissed a lot of white people off by saying all white people are the reason for why black communities are struggling. So they voted trump who said that the communities themselves needed to be fixed in order to solve the problem, not the white people.
6: I know many young men who voted for trump because all the girls around them said gay all men are trash and sexist so if Hillary is elected then all that will be fixed. Not all men are sexist and the girls who kept bashing men are part of the reason trump won. Hillary's "I'm with her" slogan didn't help with that. His encouraged many young men to vote trump.
7. All of the Clintons scandals.
8. Just change. Typically, people don't like doing the same thing for too long, hence why some trump voters went for trump over Hillary. They didn't want the same old same old.

There are still more reasons that can be mentioned, but those are most of them. I do have to say, the majority of trump voters are not racist, xenophobic, sexist, homophobic, scum like they are painted out to be. Many of them are just hurting right now financially because of things that have happened. Or they are concerned for their safety. There are of course those kinds of people who did vote for trump. But that is a minority. I also have to say, this SJW bs movement in the country will only be counterproductive. I encourage active change but SJWs think with their heart and disregard any informantion given to them that happens to go against their beliefs by accusing someone of being a racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, isoamaphobic, scum. So please, no more SJWs. They are a big reason that Hillary lost. People would vote for trump just to spite them.
   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 07:26 PM

It was pretty close. I remember looking at states and seeing that a lot of rural areas voted for trump whereas larger cities voted for Hillary. In my state alone, where the universities are located went Blue.
   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 07:40 PM

There are a ton of reasons she lost, mostly media-based, but here's another one. She didn't have a strong economic message. Older white males in the midwest used to have great union jobs with lots of benefits. Nobody really trusts her (for good reason), but they would not have been pissed off about the emails/other bullshit if she was pro-union, anti-NAFTA, and anti-Walmart (and everything similar to it). Had she screamed 'I love unions' from the rooftops, She definitely would have won in Michigan and Wisconsin at least, maybe Pennsylvania.
Another thing she did was play identity politics. Her campaign slogan was, "I'm with HER", and they constantly played up the 'be a part of history' card. Many people don't care about history, they care about their paychecks. She was often seen as representing anyone except for rural/suburban white males- and they crushed her. I'm not typically one to rail against political correctness (I usually see it as a cop-out when the average person brings it up), but the media threw around 'sexist!' everywhere, even when it didn't apply. They did this all the time during the primary even though her challenger was Bernie Sanders, the most equalist person ever (the guy fought for trans rights in the EIGHTIES, for Christ's sake). People get bored of that. By the time the general election came around, we had already been talking about sexism for months on both sides and instead of Trump getting obliterated and shunned for his VERY sexist comments like anyone else would have, the shock was gone. 'Grab her by the pussy' was just shocking, but not earth-shattering.
Watch the Democratic party establishment learn nothing from this embarrassment.


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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 27th 2016, 07:54 PM

Mainstream media was in Clinton's pocket, they accentuated the bad Trump did but didn't say anything about what good Trump did (If you think Trump is anti-gay, watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMnoa8dLw8. And this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I1-r1YgK9I)

And then the Wikileaks and FBIAnon AMA at 4chan came to tip the cow (At least it did for me), and remember the political scandals Hillary had a part in (Benghazi and the e-mail server scandal). And the average people, the working class that are mostly the most hated for those PC people (Straight white males) were sick and tired of being labelled sexist, racist, homophobic ect. (Something I am tired of too, you people throw these words around like it means nothing and is worse for America in the long run)

Also, a no-fly zone in Syria would've began World War 3 (Top US general's view about that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykk8ibRhx-g), now they have peace with Russia and Syria, so that's a big improvement, he ain't that bad compared to Hillary


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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 28th 2016, 08:21 PM

I never said Trump was anti-gay, but I did say that he has no clue how to do this job and will relegate duties to his assistants. Pence and pretty much the entire Republican establishment is anti-gay, and if they're helping Trump, the national agenda will also be anti-gay.
What good did Trump do? They quoted HIM. They didn't pull out alleged quotes that may or may not have been true. The reason this never affects other politicians is because no other politician is dumb enough to come out after a mass shooting and say 'told you so' on social media.
As for the PC thing, fine. It does get ridiculous, and I saw it during the primary with Bernie (calling Bernie sexist is stupid; calling a Jew anti-semetic is absurd). But to vote for somebody based on an issue that they can't fix, in my mind, is a bad decision and reflects our horrible education and media structure, which doesn't teach us anything important about policy.
I hated Hillary's military hawkishness. It was one of my biggest complaints about her during the primary. However, our military is so massive and advanced that it is almost impossible for a conventional army to beat us, especially on our own soil where the people have 300 million guns at their disposal. But yeah I agree, a war anywhere with Russia would be a disaster.
Wikileaks appeared competent until the Pedesta thing. And I went over this in another thread, covering why Pizzagate and 'spirit cooking' was just a ridiculous ploy to get evangelical/christian voters to vote a certain way. And I was right, and you proved it because you just said that story 'tipped the cow' for you. Here are my sources from the other thread where I explained from a logical and evidence stand point why it's a baseless conspiracy theory:
http://heatst.com/politics/internet-...piracy-theory/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...l-claim-huge-/
http://www.snopes.com/john-podesta-spirit-cooking/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ner/?tid=sm_tw
Yeah, I suppose there is a non-zero chance that a bunch of individual pedophile politicians just so happened to climb the political pyramid and meet each other at the top, but the odds of that happening are absolutely minuscule. I'd recommend reading what I wrote under "Trump wins- the consequences". Once again, 4chan posters aren't a reliable source because there are zero ramifications for them if they just make stuff up. And look, I don't mean any disrespect by calling you out, but seriously, if you float this theory to somebody in real life, they're gonna think you're crazy... even if, by some incredibly small chance, it's true.
Yeah, I get it Infowars isn't inherently wrong because they're Infowars. But they're inherently untrustworthy because they believe all sorts of ridiculous conspiracy theories, like about how our government is run by 'lizard people'. So why would I put any stock in them now, for ANOTHER theory that sounds ridiculous?


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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 28th 2016, 08:51 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by MichWolverineFreak View Post
Here are my sources from the other thread where I explained from a logical and evidence stand point why it's a baseless conspiracy theory:
http://heatst.com/politics/internet-...piracy-theory/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...l-claim-huge-/
http://www.snopes.com/john-podesta-spirit-cooking/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ner/?tid=sm_tw
3 of those 4 links don't work. Either the articles were removed, moved, or you posted slightly wrong links.

And actually you might be surprised to hear that pedophilia is suspected of being strongly correlated with psychopathy. And psychopathy is strongly correlated with politics. However, this isn't exactly a popular topic, or the typical thing which news articles cover, so it's harder than usual to fact-check this with google. Links will mostly take you to sites which require paid subscriptions. I found this forum post which sheds some light on this though:
http://www.psychopath-research.com/f..._the_Pedophile

My point is... the chances aren't as small as you think. Psychopathic personality disorders are even 5x more frequent in politics, than in the average population. And there are thought to be links between psychopathy and pedophilia, although it isn't as simple to definitely determine as simply asking such individuals if this is true for them.

It's worth differentiating though between "pedophilic attraction", and actually acting on it. People who act on it, and abuse children that way, likely do it because their moral standards are somehow compromised... which is a defining characteristic of psychopaths. Simply feeling the attraction by itself... and not necessarily acting on it, isn't the same. Not that I'm talking from experience... hell no. 'Cos this is starting to sound weird now. There are varying degrees of "acting on it" of course. There is possession of illegal photographs on one end of the spectrum, and then there is actual physical abuse on the other end.

Anyway, I wanted to say this earlier, and I wanted to have more evidence to back up what I'm saying... but I said already, it's a little hard to find on google, and I don't have hours to search for it.

.


"I don't care about politics"
Then politics doesn't care about you either. Truth. You've got to make your voice heard, if you want to be listened to. But that's too logical for some people, so let me go a step further. Not making your voice heard, leaves other people free to hijack it by speaking on your behalf, even if they don't actually give a shit about you. That's politics. So, make your voice heard. That's not a quote from anywhere. That's just me.



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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 29th 2016, 03:52 AM

Ok, I like that thought actually (I pressed like). People who seek power to abuse people are more likely to abuse people/kids than the average person. But I'm still not sold on the idea that the entire DNC is in on it, I think that's just too far out there for that many high level people. Even if there was more evidence from better sources, I would still be skeptical. It just sounds too sensationalist for me. If it turned out a lower level Democratic office was doing this, yeah I could believe that if I saw some reasonable evidence. And if this was an isolated incident where, say, Bill Clinton was involved in pedophilia (now THAT wouldn't really surprise me), it would be more believable.
I don't know what the hell is wrong with those links, they worked just fine in the other thread, I'm pretty sure. Maybe the sites have an anti-linking mechanism (doubtful, I probably just messed it up). However, the point I was getting at is that investigative sites are far more trustworthy than some guy on 4chan.


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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 29th 2016, 01:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by MichWolverineFreak View Post
But I'm still not sold on the idea that the entire DNC is in on it, I think that's just too far out there for that many high level people.
I'm not convinced either that the "whole" DNC is on it... assuming it is true in the first place. It would be far too risky. If you do something like that, you want as few people to know about it as possible. Especially in politics where even just picking your nose can be used against you in a smear campaign, even by your own colleagues.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MichWolverineFreak View Post
I don't know what the hell is wrong with those links, they worked just fine in the other thread, I'm pretty sure.
Reptilians at it again, covering their tracks. Typical reptilian behavior: covering for other reptilians.

.


"I don't care about politics"
Then politics doesn't care about you either. Truth. You've got to make your voice heard, if you want to be listened to. But that's too logical for some people, so let me go a step further. Not making your voice heard, leaves other people free to hijack it by speaking on your behalf, even if they don't actually give a shit about you. That's politics. So, make your voice heard. That's not a quote from anywhere. That's just me.


   
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Re: Why did Hillary fail when everything seemed to suggest she'd win - November 29th 2016, 04:13 PM

Yeah, that's the thing, if it was a leak of some sort suggesting one person was in on it (especially Bill, not gonna lie, I think the guy's a straight up pervert), then I would give more respect to the theory. But I think it was like 6 people involved, I might be wrong. To me, that's just overplaying your hand.
And those goddamn reptiles, what the hell.


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