Quote:
Originally Posted by theantihero
I'm not surprised this hurricane is high in intensity. Wait until the winter storms. AMOC predicted to collapse as early as winter 2025-26.
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That isnt why the hurricane is so intense.It has happened before, even going on 100 year ago. Waters in that region at this time of year generally support a hurricane with 180-190mph winds as the maximum. The question is if it reaches the max potential intensity. Most stoms do not, but in the deep tropics (ie. Jamaica), there is no fall, no cold , and no “jet stream”. Therefore, these late season west car. storms are in a tropical cacoon where they can sometimes blow up. It becomes less common in November when wind shear, stability, and dry air all increase. This particular storm was slow moving, over the warmest region of the Atlantic, had low shear, and its upper level outflow blew right into the jet stream to the north. The storm also seemed less stratified into rainbands, making it more “annular” (like a circle). This makes it experience less severe fluctuations in intensity due to what are called eyewall replacement cycles than many other storms, so the intensification is not interrupted. The system looked like a powerful west pacific typhoon (same thing as a hurricane, but things can be more intense ther due to the warmer average water temps than the Atlantic). That part of the Caribbean comes the closest to having those water temps and its time to produce strong storms is often late October to early November. Most Atlantic storms that have had that western Pacific look on satellite are west (not as often east) Caribbean born or close (ie. Milton 2024 in Bay of Campeche). Basically, it was in the right spot that could support those winds and also at the right time for the atmosphere(but again, it is tropical and during season so it is not asking for too much to get favorable atmosphere). A tropical wave entered the region at the wrong time and boom- historic cat 5. It happens just like that because the eyeis small (only about 11 miles across in this case). Due to the small size, many models struggle to pick up on eyewall changes that affect intensity. Intensity has remained a problem for meteorologists to predict. They pretty much knew it was going to Jamaica for days in advance as path is more easily predicted now, but nobody expected the sub 900mb 185mph hurricane that made landfall even though it was known that conditions allowed it. But just because something is historic does not mean it is something new. Similar hurricanes have been seen long before
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