Things are going to shit...

[BDF]

This just shows... the banks have everyone by the balls. They could have easily said no, screw the Euro, and the planet while they're at it:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-...04158.html?x=0

[Cosmo]

If the Euro goes down, Germany, France... almost all of Europe goes down with it. Then the only country with any economic strength is China.

[TigerTank77]

Originally Posted by Cosmo

Then the only country with any economic strength is China.

China's economy is more fragile than you think. Their entire success is based on the fact that we have money to spend on cheap shit. One that goes, so do they.

[Cosmo]

Originally Posted by TigerTank77

China's economy is more fragile than you think. Their entire success is based on the fact that we have money to spend on cheap shit. One that goes, so do they.

So it's even worse than I first described. If the Euro fails, the world economy is fucked sideways.

[BDF]

Originally Posted by Cosmo

So it's even worse than I first described. If the Euro fails, the world economy is fucked sideways.

... and vertically and horizontally, and across all other undefined dimensions.

We're such cynics lol. It's true though.

[Ella.x]

Things are going to shit indeed. All this money is disgusting. The few people that have it are completely in control, whilst the majority of us hardworking sods can barely afford to eat. Down with capitalism, I say (although in practice communism isn't much better). Looks like the world as we know it is going to end. Bailouts aren't going to fix anything. It's like putting a band-aid on a severed limb.

[Cosmo]

Originally Posted by Ella.x

Things are going to shit indeed. All this money is disgusting. The few people that have it are completely in control, whilst the majority of us hardworking sods can barely afford to eat. Down with capitalism, I say (although in practice communism isn't much better). Looks like the world as we know it is going to end. Bailouts aren't going to fix anything. It's like putting a band-aid on a severed limb.

Communism isn't the only alternative to Capitalism!

[TheNumber42]

Originally Posted by TigerTank77

China's economy is more fragile than you think. Their entire success is based on the fact that we have money to spend on cheap shit. One that goes, so do they.

I just recently read an article that was basically saying that a lot of investors and economists expect China's economy to pretty much implode at any moment now. So yeah, we're all fucked.

[Cosmo]

Originally Posted by TheNumber42

I just recently read an article that was basically saying that a lot of investors and economists expect China's economy to pretty much implode at any moment now. So yeah, we're all fucked.

I don't suppose you could spend 5 minutes looking through your History for that article could you? I'd be grateful, sounds like a very interesting piece!

[TheNumber42]

Shorting China
Panda bears
Betting against China is in vogue

Oct 8th 2011 | HONG KONG |



ONE year ago bears on China were a rare species. People scoffed at Jim Chanos, a well-known short-seller, who predicted that China would end up “like Dubai times 1,000, or worse”. Nor did they heed Hugh Hendry, the eccentric boss of Eclectica Asset Management, who posted a homemade video of himself wandering Chinese streets and gawking at abandoned skyscrapers on YouTube.

The view that China is heading for a sharp slowdown has now caught on. Few go so far as to predict an Emirate-style crash, but talk of a “hard landing” is rife. Concerns abound that a sharp Western slowdown could cripple demand for Chinese exports, that shadow lending and local-government debt are out of control and that property prices are bound for a correction. Fraud allegations against several Chinese firms have made investors jittery, too.

So pervasive is the gloom that one Chinese hedge-fund manager who isn’t “that bearish on China” describes his position as “contrarian”. Société Générale recently released a report saying China is the “world’s most crowded short”. In Hong Kong, where many bears express their views on China because it is not possible to short mainland stocks, long positions still outnumber shorts by six to one. But that’s down from 11 to one in January, according to Data Explorers, a research firm.

Pessimists have focused on industries that would be hardest hit by government tightening or a sustained slowdown, which means property and construction companies in particular. Anhui Conch Cement, China’s largest cement manufacturer, is the most commonly shorted Chinese company listed in Hong Kong. Commodities such as copper have also been battered recently, as have financial stocks. Some investors are more creative. Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors, a hedge fund, has bought put options on the yuan, betting that the value of the currency will decline. Mr Hendry has purchased credit-default swaps on Japanese firms that are heavy exporters to China.

Pessimism has proved profitable recently. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has dropped by more than 29% so far this year, more than the French and Spanish stockmarkets. Mr Hendry’s “short China” fund was reportedly up by nearly 40% in the year to August. Messrs Chanos, Hart and Hendry had positions in place for a while before there were any signs of China wobbling, however. Without a sustained fall in asset prices, it is unclear whether they will make back much more than they spent.

An executive at a large hedge fund that went “net short” on China in the spring says that the trade is riskier now that equity prices have declined so much. “If you’re shorting shares at seven to eight times earnings, it’s a bold bet,” he says. Investors face the additional risk of being caught in a “short squeeze”, when the price of a stock is pushed up and short-sellers have to cover their positions. Regulators could also intrude: there are calls for a ban on shorting in Hong Kong. Needless to say, that hasn’t stopped the bears from warning that China has further to fall. Mr Chanos, who has never been to China, is rumoured to have a trip planned this month to Hong Kong. He will get a more admiring reception now than he would have 12 months ago.

Here's a copypasta of it, don't have a link to the specific article, it's from The Economist though. This is another one in a similar vein. Not quite as pessimistic as I recalled, though when you consider how interlinked everything is, even a "sharp slowdown" in China could be pretty devastating.

[Ibanez]

Originally Posted by Cosmo

If the Euro goes down, Germany, France... almost all of Europe goes down with it. Then the only country with any economic strength is Canada

Fixed

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/db2b340a-0...#axzz1c1FKd0e3

[Cosmo]

Originally Posted by Caliber

Fixed

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/db2b340a-0...#axzz1c1FKd0e3

Well played. Gotta love Canada.

[JKmadu619]

Originally Posted by Cosmo

Well played. Gotta love Canada.

Damn straight.

- Justin

[Lugez]

who cares, world is ending in 2012 right guys???

[Nostalgia]

Things are already shit economy wise. This will just make the economy worse, less jobs, higher tax, higher prices, Higher VAT. And then no doubt we will be heading for another recession even though we are just about out of this recession alone . Enough said.

[Acheron]

Hmm. Given the interconnectedness of the world economy, the only country that can survive this crisis unscathed is one that has almost no contact with the outside world. A country that has rejected capitalism in favour of the stability and prosperity of Juche, under the wise and benevolent direction of a glorious leader. North Korea is best Korea!

[Cosmo]

Originally Posted by Acheron

Hmm. Given the interconnectedness of the world economy, the only country that can survive this crisis unscathed is one that has almost no contact with the outside world. A country that has rejected capitalism in favour of the stability and prosperity of Juche, under the wise and benevolent direction of a glorious leader. North Korea is best Korea!